The strategy I am about to share with you is right 50% of the time.
“Why the hell would I want a strategy that is right only 50% of the time?”
Because, when it is wrong – it quickly corrects itself.
Because, when it is right – it is generates 80% of the gains.
Because, when it is wrong – it is minimized loss to ~20%.
What you need for indicators
Simple Moving Average – 8 period
Simple Moving Average – 21 period
Chart Time Frame this strategy works with: Daily Only
Any other time frame would require a modification to the moving averages
The 21 period MA is your trend indicator. 21 represents the number of business days in a given month.
The 8 period MA is your entry/exit indicator.
LONG
When the prices are trading above the 21. Only take long positions. Taking short positions against the trend is dangerous to your portfolio.
When the prices close above the 8 MA on a positive bar: Long Entry
When the prices close below the 8 MA on a negative bar: Short Exit
After exiting, if the prices close above the 8 MA on a positive bar: Long Re-enter
SHORT
When the prices are trading below the 21. Only take short positions. Take long positions against the trend is dangerous to your portfolio.
When the prices close below the 8 MA on a negative bar: Short Entry
When the prices close above the 8 MA on a positive bar: Short Exit
After exiting, if the prices close below the 8 MA on a negative bar: Short Re-enter
| Date | Transaction | Price | Profit/Loss |
| 2 May 19 | Short Entry | 26307.8 | |
| 16 May 19 | Short Covered | 25862.7 | +445.1 |
| 23 May 19 | Short Entry | 25490.5 | |
| 4 Jun 19 | Short Covered | 25332.2 | +158.3 |
| 6 Jun 19 | Long Entry | 25720.7 | |
| 26 Jun 19 | Long Closed | 26536.8 | +816.1 |
| 2 July 19 | Long Entry | 26786.7 | |
| 19 July 19 | Long Closed | 27154.2 | +367.5 |
| 23 July 19 | Long Entry | 27204.6 | |
| 25 July 19 | Long Closed | 27141.0 | -63.6 |
| 29 July 19 | Long Entry | 27221.4 | |
| 31 July 19 | Long Closed | 26864.3 | -357.1 |
| 31 July 19 | Short Entry | 26864.3 | |
| 13 Aug 19 | Short Covered | 26279.3 | +585 |
| 14 Aug 19 | Short Entry | 25479.4 | |
| 19 Aug 19 | Short Covered | 26135.8 | -656.4 |
| 23 Aug 19 | Short Entry | 25628.9 | |
| 28 Aug 19 | Short Covered | 26036.1 | -407 |
| 29 Aug 19 | Long Entry | 26362.3 | |
| 20 Sept 19 | Long Closed | 26935.1 | +572.8 |
| 27 Sept 19 | Short Entry | 26820.3 |
| Total Trades | 10 | Total Points Traded | 4428.9 |
| Winning Trades | 6 | Winning Points | 2944.8 |
| Losing Trades | 4 | Losing Points | 1484.1 |
| Winning Percentage | 66.5% | ||
| Losing Percentage | 33.5% |
Right now you are probably asking yourself: “Where is this 80% you mentioned.”
I have shown you the first steps and provided a degree of evidence that it works. There is a very important rule that must be covered. This rule will eliminate some of the losing trades. It is the rule regarding consolidation.
Now, consolidation is a lengthy explanation. So, I have written another post regarding how to identify consolidation. But I will cover the rule here.
Rule regarding consolidation
WHEN IN CONSOLIDATION. Only obey the first rule event triggered inside of consolidation. After the first event has been executed, ignore the rest of the events until you have a break out from the consolidation. Then trade the consolidation direction.
Re-using the above example. I will reuse this since there are two very large consolidation zones. I have highlighted the consolidation zones in yellow on the following chart.
| Date | Transaction | Price | Profit/Loss |
| 2 May 19 | Short Entry | 26430.1 | |
| 16 May 19 | Short Covered | 25862.7 | +567.4 |
| 29 May 19 | Short Entry | 25126.4 | |
| 4 Jun 19 | Short Covered | 25332.2 | -205.8 |
| 6 Jun 19 | Long Entry | 25720.7 | |
| 26 Jun 19 | Long Closed | 26536.8 | +816.1 |
| 3 Jul 19 | Long Entry | 26966.0 | |
| 19 July 19 | Long Closed | 27154.2 | +188.2 |
| 31 July 19 | Short Entry | 26864.3 | |
| 13 Aug 19 | Short Covered | 26279.9 | +584.4 |
| 5 Sep 19 | Long Entry | 26728.8 | |
| 20 Sep 19 | Long Covered | 26935.1 | +206.3 |
| Total Trades | 6 | Total Points | 2568.2 |
| Winning Trades | 5 | Winning Points | 2362.4 |
| Losing Trades | 1 | Losing Points | 205.8 |
| Winning Percentage | 91.99% | ||
| Losing Percentage | 8.01% |
As demonstrated, once consolidation zones are identified (and ignored after first event), the number of false trades declines. The sample above is just a month 5 sample. If we were to extend the data out further. The winning percentage would start to decline towards 80% and the losing trades would increase toward 50% of the trades executed.
Orion Price Prophet 
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