37 Year Market Pattern (The Master Cycle)

Larry Williams in The Secrets of Selecting Stocks For Immediate and Substantial Gains wrote about this pattern in 1986.

In writing about this, Mr. Williams stated that the market is on a 37 year cycle. Using 1859 as a start the cycle would then start again at: 1896, 1933, 1970, 2007 and 2044.

Within this cycle a sub-cycles.

Mr. Williams breaks it into three phases.

Phase One (17 years): 4 bull waves (~3 years long with half year correction) and one 4 year bear phase.
Given this time line. Starting in ~2008 as the marker for the end of the previous cycle. Run-up would have been 2011, 2014, 2017. Each would of had a half year pull back sometime within. This could adjust the years to 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2021. Which would be followed by a 4 year bull market.

Current Market Phase One as of November 2019

If this is true, we are now in cycle 4 of 5 in the phase one movement. This would mean a bull market into 2021 then the start of a 4 year bear market.

Phase Two: Mr. Williams writes is the shortest of the three phases with a 5 year bull run with a minor correction in year three followed by a two year bear run for a total of seven years.

Phase Three: Mr. Williams points out has a 8 year bull run, minor correction in the middle of this time span. Followed by a four year bear run. The top of the overall market run is marked by the high of the phase three 8 year run.

So given this cycle the following grid should be the approximate time periods for up coming movements.

Phase	Cycle	Market	Year Ending
1	1	Bull	2011
	1.5	Correction	3 – 5 months
	2	Bull	2015
	2.5	Correction	3 – 5 months
	3	Bull	2018
	3.5	Correction	3 – 5 months
	4	Bull	2021
	4.5	Correction	3 – 5 months
	5	Bear	2025
2	1	Bull	2030
	1.5	Correction	Around 3rd year (2027)
	2	Bear	2032
3	1	Bull	2040
	1.5	Correction	Around 6th year (2038)
	2	Bear	2044

In his book, Mr. Williams wrote a projection for a 1.5 year bear market was 1993.

In January of 1994 the DJIA reached a high of 3985.4 and slid back to 3520 by April. I know, by today’s standards a 400 point move is called “Monday”. However, in 1994 this was significant. It wasn’t until February of 1995 that the market broke above the January 1994 high again and began another Bull run.

While this isn’t “Scientifically” accurate, there seems to be some degree of accuracy, with a little bit of a slide to the right for starts and some slide to the left for stops of certain cycles. However, they appear to be within a 37 year pattern.

Mr. Williams stated that should 80% of the projections actually demonstrate accuracy, then it is considered a “hit”. Which I would agree with, getting 80% accurate in the market is basically a WIN.

I find this pattern interesting and figured I would share it here.

The book, once again is: The Secrets of Selecting Stocks For Immediate and Substantial Gains by Larry Williams.